China’s Economic Performance Q3 2022: GDP Rebounds But Risks Still Remain
After having been delayed for nearly a week due to the Chinese Communist Party Congress, there was a lot of speculation around the quarterly results and what they may reflect. The Q3 results for 2022, which were released on the morning of the 24th of October, reflected a sharp rebound in the GDP, faster than originally anticipated by analysts.
From July to September the Chinese economy experienced a 3.9% growth rate year-on-year, which had far exceeded the 0.4% growth experienced over Q2. Despite the positives illustrated by the growth, there are still a number of challenges that pose a risk to economy in the near future.
China is still battling to contain COVID-19, while the zero-COVID measures continue to put a strain on businesses and individuals. Additionally, China is faced with multiple geo-political issues and difficulty in the property market, which is a key sector in the economy, still remains. Despite the challenges Chinese leaders still maintain that the economy will remain strong in the long run.
Gross Domestic Product in the Third Quarter
China’s GDP growth from July to September stood at 3.9%, which is a sharp rebound from the 0.4% growth that was experienced in Q2. Up to this point the GDP over the first 3 quarters had reached just over RMB 87 billion, which was up by 3% year-on-year.
Unemployment Sees a Decrease
The unemployment rate for Q3 averaged 5.4% which is 0.4% lower than unemployment seen in the previous quarter. The surveyed unemployment rate in September reached 5.5%, which is 0.2% higher than it was August.
Purchasing Managers Index
The Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) is a metric used to weigh the performance of large enterprises based on the criteria of production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels and production. A figure of 50 demonstrates no change, while a figure higher or lower than 50 indicates relative increases or decreases in performance.
In September the Purchasing Managers Index saw an increase of 0.7% from the previous month, allowing it to stand at 50.1%.
Increase in Retail Sales Assists Yearly Average
While in Q2 total retail sales of consumer goods experienced a 4.6% decrease from the previous year, Q3 illustrated a strong rebound at a *** y-o-y increase. Collectively for the first 3 quarters total retail sales saw a slight y-o-y increase at 0.7%
Recovery Seen in Industrial Production
The total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size saw growth of 3.9% year-on-year over the first 3 quarters of 2022. Specifically, in Q3 the value added of industrial enterprises saw a 4.8% increase year-on-year, which is 4.1% more than that of Q2.
In terms of sector specific growth, the high-tech manufacturing sector saw an 8.5% increase. The total value of mining increased 8.5% year over year and manufacturing saw a growth rate of 3.2%.
Understanding China’s Business Landscape
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