China Quarterly Results Q3 2023
The National Bureau of Statistics of China has recently unveiled the statistics for the third quarter, revealing a growth rate that surpasses initial projections. Notably, China’s economy exhibited a commendable 4.9% expansion over the preceding quarter, marking a significant stride towards achieving the targeted 5% growth for the fiscal year 2023. This robust quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.3% underscores a prevailing sense of stability in the economic landscape, prompting the Chinese government to intensify its efforts in bolstering support for the private sector, a pivotal strategy in attaining its growth objective.
By exceeding anticipations, the Chinese economy has effectively mitigated the negative sentiment that had persisted among analysts since the year’s onset. While a complete resurgence in consumption has not yet materialized, there are discernible positive indicators, a development substantial enough to counteract the prevailing pessimism. While it remains improbable for China to sustain the meteoric growth rates witnessed over the past two decades, the consistent and robust economic performance bespeaks a restoration of stability and attests to the efficacy of China’s economic strategies.
Unemployment Rate in Urban Areas
The surveyed urban employment rate over the 3 quarters if 2023 remained at 5.3% on average, however it did ease in September, dropping to 5%.
Imports and Exports
Over the first 3 quarters the total value of imports and exports saw a mild decline of 0.2% year-on-year. The total value of exports was up by 0.6% year-on-year, while the value of imports saw a decrease of 1.2%.
In September, the value of imports and exports saw a decline of 0.7% year-on-year. The total value of exports was down by 0.6%, while the value of imports was down by 0.8%.
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
The composite PMI output index for large enterprises is a weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. If the PMI index is 50, this indicates no change, whereas a number over 50 indicates improvement and a number below 50 suggests a decline.
In September, the Purchasing Manager Index of the manufacturing industry was at 50.2%, which is 0.5% increase from the month before. The 0.5% increase pushed the PMI past the 50% mark for the 1st time since March and is a 0.1% increase over the same period in the previous year.
Value of Industrial Enterprises
Over the first three quarters of 2023, the value of industrial enterprises above the designated size saw a 4% increase, which is 0.2% higher than the 1st half of the year.
The total retail sales of consumer goods over the 3 quarters saw a 6.8% increase year-on-year. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods experienced a 5.5% increase year-on-year, with a 0.9% increase from August, showing that momentum is building in the final quarter of the year.
Heading into the Final Quarter
Having experienced a relatively subdued performance in the earlier part of the year, the government has proactively implemented measures to progress towards its annual objectives. The surpassing of expectations in this quarter has bolstered analysts’ confidence in the attainability of the 5% target. Notwithstanding the growing optimism among experts regarding economic performance for the year, the Commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics duly acknowledged the challenges posed by the external environment. Consequently, the government remains committed to fostering stability and steadfastly pursuing the realization of its growth target.
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